Leader: Gregor Giebel, DTU Wind Energy
The aim of this final work package is to analyse the spatial and temporal variability in the wind resources including icing losses in the Nordic region and the implications for wind power integration into the balancing and power markets, and for electrical grid development. This will be achieved by combining large scale resource mapping from models and satellite data with models for power and grid integration. Variability of wind power production in time scales of 1 to 6 hours are studied for Nordic wide wind power production, with a couple of future wind power capacity scenarios. Regions of high and low correlations in the wind energy production potential will be identified which is an important input to the system implication studies.
The spatial and temporal variability of wind energy forecasts and forecast errors will be studied and a spatial scale will be identified to use with a derived model in reducing forecasting errors within a larger region. Using this knowledge, the impact of the variability and forecast errors of wind power to the Nordic balancing markets will be assessed by statistical methods combining time series of (upscaled) wind power and load variability. The impact of forecast errors alone, as well as the combined (upscaled) wind forecast errors and system net imbalances are analysed in terms of balancing market demand.